Zheng Cotton Innovation Low Direct Subsidy Policy Into The Focus Of Game

As of Monday's close, the 1501 contract of the main cotton futures contract fell 345 yuan to 13905 yuan / ton, or 2.42%, and the turnover increased significantly from 42826 to 447 thousand on that day.

On the spot market, China's cotton price index closed down 16987 points in September 1st, down 5 points.

Everbright futures analyst Xu Aixia said, the first day of 2014/2015, Zheng Mianping opened and then fell sharply, the main 1501 contract fell below 14000 yuan pass.

At the beginning of the new year, the direct subsidy rules have not yet been released, but there are rumors about the details. The hearsay involves the production of the subsidy base, the calculation of the subsidy quota and the collection of the price of the Xinjiang Construction Corps and the autonomous region. The policy details have not been announced, and the uncertainty is greater. With the current inventory of more than ten million tons, the current market atmosphere is empty. With the suppression of funds, Zheng cotton is still weak in the short term. However, the stock market has stopped. In September, new cotton has not been listed on the stock market, and the spot supply is not enough. The fluctuation of the spot price is less than the price.

Domestic cotton yarn prices remain weak, some manufacturers cut prices and increase promotional efforts, and overall shipments have not improved significantly. Recently, a small amount of seed cotton was picked and sold in Northern Xinjiang, and the purchase price was 7-7.20 yuan / kg; while before Akesu, Kashi and other places, the flowers were basically not picked, and the market was relatively sporadic. Considering the moisture content of seed cotton and low linen, the ginning factory quoted 6.8-7.3 yuan / kg.

Direct subsidy policy is undoubtedly the focus of the current market.

Wang Yang, vice premier of the State Council, recently inspecting agricultural and rural work in Xinjiang, stressed that carrying out the pilot project of cotton target price reform is a major measure to explore and improve the price formation mechanism of agricultural products and to play the role of market allocation of resources. We must strengthen confidence in reform, improve operational methods, organize and implement them carefully, and ensure smooth progress.

Shanghai medium-term analysts believe that Zheng cotton yesterday collapsed due to several aspects: first, the technical break of the day after the 14000 yuan first line integer after the entry of technical selling, the intraday holdings increased nearly 50 thousand hands, indicating that short-term directional choice downward.

The two is the acceleration of marketization of cotton prices. As the direct subsidy rules in Xinjiang are about to be announced and the new cotton market is expected to be cut down by 11% in the late period, the price gap between domestic cotton and imported cotton is accelerating narrowing. The price difference between the main 1501 contract price and the 1% quota tariff has narrowed to 800-1500 yuan. Once domestic and foreign cotton price difference tends to be flat, the price advantage of foreign cotton will weaken, and domestic cotton demand will rebound.

From a technical point of view, the empty list can continue to hold.

But from a fundamental point of view, the current price of the main contract 1501 disk space will be more and more limited, therefore, it is not recommended that the single long term holding, once the right trading signals appear, but can try to intervene more.

It was cut and done.

In the eyes of some people in the industry,

Late fall may be limited.

Founder medium-term Research Institute

Zheng cotton's main contract fell sharply, breaking new lows. The policy of direct subsidy was announced soon, and the market understood the policy as a whole. However, from the perspective of cost and supply and demand, the assumption was made that the takeover of the company would take place.

The price is 3.2 yuan / Jin, then the processing cost of lint is up to 14000 yuan / ton; moreover, after the end of the cotton sale in the end of August, the cotton stocks of the enterprises are seriously low, and the new cotton is not expected to be listed until the beginning of October. Therefore, there will be tension in the cotton supply and demand stage in September.

Zheng Shang Post's post position report shows that yesterday, the first 20 Futures Company seats in Zhengzhou cotton futures totaled more than 11507 to 196 thousand hands, and the first 20 empty seats increased from 15606 to 190 thousand.